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The Domino Effect

November 7th will be a watershed event in Washington that could have far reaching implications and possibly trigger an abrupt change of pace in nearly everything happening today. While various polls suggest a variety of outcomes, it is becoming increasingly plausible that the GOP could lose control of both the House and the Senate in the election. The prediction is beginning to come from some of the key pundits whose views represent both sides. One such prediction is that the Democrats could pick up in excess of 30 seats in the House. Of course, this collective slap of reality has yet to play out as we are still weeks away from the election and a lot can happen in a short period of time.

Despite the hopes by GOP politicos that something big will happen to turn things in their favor, like a sudden cessation sectarian violence in Iraq, bin Laden surrendering, or the second coming of Christ, there is little hope of anything more than simply stopping the bleeding. But even that is a tall order given the almost daily revelation of some new twist on a scandal or even a new scandal. It's unfortunate for the GOP that the negative energy has a life of its own now and even the most innocuous thing seems much more poignant, in light of everything that's going on, than if it had happened in a vacuum. For instance, the Foley scandal begat the Hastert Scandal, which is in the process of begetting a Kolbe scandal (a camping trip with a couple of pages years ago). Bob Ney just pleaded guilty to corruption charges, faces up to 10 years in prison, and this follows indictments, resignations and imprisonment of others in his party. Now Curt Weldon is being looked at by the FBI for possible lobbying-related misdeeds. There's no end in sight.

Speculation, wild as it is, suggests the North Korean nuke test was suspiciously timed, perhaps to affect the outcome of the election. The fact that Bush is more of a threat to them with control of Congress than without it may lend a little creedence to that theory.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are going terribly with no real working strategy. For the first time since Bush uttered his "stay the course" mantra, he is talking about changing course, this shift in attitute following strong statements by military leaders and ceaseless withering violence on the ground in Iraq. While this does sound promising (perhaps he is beginning to pay attention), it doesn't do much for the unwavering resolve stance responsible for much of his support. On the other hand, Afghanistan faces the threat of reverting back to Taliban control, by popular support, and we are reminded this week that there is no senior administration official in charge of the Afghanistan operations. It is apparently relegated to mid-level Pentagon control. If Afghanistan is lost, what becomes of our relationship with Pakistan? With the US effectively defeated in Afghanistan, Musharraf could easily be ousted and that entire region could be out of our reach once again. Now you have a nuclear-armed nation run by radical Islamists who idolize bin Laden.

If, by some stroke of fortune, the GOP retains control of Congress, what do they do next? These scandals, inane as they may be, don't evaporate on November 8th. Any voluntary course-correction in Iraq by the administration is not likely to be nearly enough to turn the corner. Some GOP supporters are even suggesting that they need to lose in order to regroup. The ultra-conservative Wall Street Journal even predicts a boost to the economy if the Democrats prevail. This means people want change, even if for the sake of change. And it may be a foregone conclusion that the dominos are falling and cannot be stopped and that a national re-boot is as inevitable as it is desperately needed.