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Alternate Endings - The Bush Legacy

It's November 17th, 2009. Whitehouse press secretary David Corn announced today that President Obama's long-anticipated universal health-care program, a bit behind schedule and not without its problems, is due to launch by the first of the year. Nothing since 9/11/2001 has garnered so much media attention, with the exception of the end of the Iraq war, and the mad dash from the Baghdad green zone to the Kuwaiti border now known as the "Exodus", or as Jon Stewart called it, the "Exit U.S." The difference now is that President Obama's initiative will likely save more lives in the first couple of months than the over 10,000 Americans who lost theirs in the war.

A lot of other things have happened recently. The Republicans barely regained control of the Senate in 2008 but the Democrats picked up even more seats in the House, after the investigations into corruption sent 40 of its members to prison and many more into political exile. They're still at each other's throats, but they've made good progress and people seem to be a bit more satisfied. They were able to pass the health plan by a good margin as well as the Alternative Energy Act, part of which will ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles in the U.S. by 2025.

The regime of North Korea collapsed and the country has basically been annexed by China, for the time being, for humanitarian reasons, although talks of reunification of north and south are moving ahead. Once journalists were able to freely travel in North Korea, the world was amazed and sickened at what they saw and the outpouring of aid has been monumental.

Fidel Castro died last year and I've been to Havana twice now. What a cool place and only an hour flight from Tampa. Cuba has become the focus of world attention, some calling it The Hague of the west, as the facility at Guantanamo Bay, which was shut down last year, is being reopened as it awaits its new sole inmate, Osama bin Laden, who was captured 2 months ago in Pakistan and will stand trial in Cuba. The publicity surrounding this trial is already becoming an economic boon for a country struggling to rejoin the free world.

As the first decade of the 21st century comes to a close, we reflect on the events of its rocky start. Foremost among them are the final days of the Bush 43 presidency. Back in 2006, I wrote two alternative endings; basically guessing how he might spend his last 2 years in office.

Alternate Ending #1 :

After the Iraq Study Group report came out in December 2006, it was clear that it was not possible to outsource the solution to the failing effort in Iraq to a committee, even one as distinquished as the ISG. The recommendations were a mix of diplomatic outreach to Iran and Syria, minor tactical adjustments, and phased withdrawal with no set timelines. None of these things were appealing to anyone so nothing changed. In early 2007, Congress approved Bush's "final push" plan that would increase troop strength by several tens of thousands. The Democratic controlled congress saw it as a way to either finish the job, or demonstrate that enough was really enough, although there was little confidence in the former and a costly way to prove latter. Republicans also had mixed feelings about it. Senator McCain was its leading proponent, hoping that success would make his presidential hopes a reality. Others reluctantly voted for it for much the same reason as the Democrats in a rare bi-partisan showing.

Despite assurances, the operation was a disaster. With no set-piece battles that the U.S. military would undoubtedly win, the insurgency swelled to astonishing levels, as did the intensity of street fighting and Baghdad became an echo of Fallujah, bombed out and ruined, and more dangerous than ever before. The bulk of the "final push" effort was to reinforce the green zone and protect the cowering Iraqi government and U.S. occupation from ceaseless withering attacks from every direction. The final blow came when several Scud missiles landed in the green zone, to the complete surprise of everyone, inflicting more casualties than in the entire period of occupation up to that point. Referred to as the "Iraqi Tet Offensive", any remaining support for the war evaporated. Newly appointed Defense Secretary Gates resigned along with several Generals and the Bush adminstration was against the wall.

That same week, an underground nuclear explosion was detected in northern Iran, followed by a gloating proclamation from the Iranian government that it was now "ready to talk to the U.S., eye to eye."

In the spring of 2007, U.S. forces abandoned Iraq in a rapid withdrawal to Kuwait. An emboldened insurgency overran the green zone but despite the dire predictions from some, allowed the U.S. to leave with minimal harassment, down the same highway the Iraqis used to flee Kuwait after the first gulf war, known as the "highway of death".

Bush, Cheney, and incoming Defense Secretary Bill Frist, remained myopic, despite the reality on the ground, insisting that the whole point of the war, all along, had been to protect the United States from nuclear attack from Iran. In his final State of the Union Address, Bush referred back to his earlier "mushroom cloud" reference, in the run-up to the war, in a feckless attempt to connect Iran to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. For the first time in recent memory, a President was booed by the Congress during his speech to the joint session.

The Iraqi government, installed during the U.S. occupation, managed to survive, although Prime Minister Maliki was voted out of office and several others in his government were assassinated. Iraq remained in turmoil but with the televised execution of Saddam Hussein behind them and the U.S. gone, violence began to subside and the country began to heal.

Shortly after the elections in 2008, Donald Rumsfeld was arrested at Heathrow airport and sent to Germany to face trial for war crimes. Bush returned to Crawford, Texas, and is said to be involved in a Hydrogen distribution startup. There are no plans as of yet for a George W Bush presidential library due to a lack of financial donors.

Alernate Ending #2 :

After the Iraq Study Group report came out in December 2006, it was clear that it was not possible to outsource the solution to the failing effort in Iraq to a committee, even one as distinquished as the ISG. The recommendations were a mix of diplomatic outreach to Iran and Syria, minor tactical adjustments, and phased withdrawal with no set timelines.

President Bush, tempered by the "thumping" his party received in the 2006 elections, discarded most of his far-right GOP advisers and made a very visible shift toward his "uniter" stance. In an address to the nation, he as much as apologized for the "miscalculations" of the past six years and committed himself to working with the Democrats in Congress. Because of the cynicism felt by the population, he took the almost unprecedented step of replacing part of his administration with prominent Democrats, including the appointment of Gen. Wesley Clark as National Security Adviser, ignoring the outcry from GOP hardliners. In addition to that, he insisted on weekly meetings with the leadership of the House and Senate majority and minority, calling it the "Unity Council". Each closed-door session was followed by a televised press conference.

The first action of the Unity Council was to devise an exit strategy for Iraq. While pundits complained about the secrecy of the plan, it became quickly apparent that U.S. forces were moving around. Many were redeployed to Kuwait and northern Kurdish areas of Iraq. A large number of troops were redeployed to Afghanistan, but few actually returned to the United States initially.

The U.S. stepped up air strikes on insurgent targets and special forces missions where groups of insurgents or al Qaeda forces could be located and attacked. The U.S. troops on the ground were, in effect, replaced with squardons of unmanned ariel vehicles (UAVs) armed with cameras and hellfire missiles and Iraqi security forces patrolled the streets below. It was an effective strategy that killed many of the insurgency leaders and demoralized its troops. With less U.S. forces on the ground, much of the anti-U.S. insurgency melted away and even sectarian violence began to subside.

The message sent to the new Iraqi government was very clear that their destiny was now in their hands and there was a noticeable rise in nationalism almost immediately. The initial uptick in violence, as a result of the new strategy, threatened to undermine the Unity Council's resolve but the weekly press conferences and joint efforts pushed much of the harsh criticism to the fringes of each party.

By the summer of 2007, most of the U.S. forces were redeployed and the additional attention on Afghanistan began to make inroads into the continuing conflict there. To the American people, the middle east was still a mess, but it was clear that their government was on the same page for the first time since the war began. Other countries began to respond as well and international involvement grew. By the end of the year, Iraq was a low-intensity conflict, a daily but below-the-fold news item, and the exit strategy itself was considered a success, although the war was considered more a stalemate than a victory.

While the war had stood down, and Bush had earned a certain amount of respect for his role, it was election season once again and the GOP was not to fare well.

John McCain, who had supported escalation of the war, narrowly defeated Rudy Giuliani in the primary but was roundly defeated by Barak Obama in the general election. McCain hammered on the continued threat of terrorism during his campaign, but the public euphoria inspired by the end of the Iraq war focused the nation on social issues such as health care, imigration, the environment, jobs and education. While Hillary Clinton had much support, she was simply overwhelmed by Obama's skill and charisma on the campaign trail, though some said she paid the price for her own support of the war.

Shortly after the 2008 elections, conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh was found dead in his hotel room from an apparent overdose of pain killers less than a week after a video of him and his gay lover was posted on YouTube. George Bush returned to Crawford Texas to write his memoirs and oversee the construction of his presidential library in Houston.

Well, those were the two predictions I made back in 2006. Interesting how things actually did turn out.