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Nefarious Intent or simply Fair Game?

All this Mark Foley suff swirling about is really creating a huge distraction, for everyone, at a time when people are preparing to perform their solemn and civic duty of electing a new Congress. Candidates from both parties are on the home stretch, carefully managing their message, and trying to convince voters why they should either be elected or re-elected. It always gets interesting as desperation sets in and they start to "go negative". But nothing could prepare anyone for the explosion that occurred when it was revealed that Rep. Mark Foley was engaged in something so completely indefensible.

While Foley's taken the obvious step of hiding in rehab and preparing his eventual defense (he's an alky, molested as a child, yada yada), a lot of other Republicans are getting sucked into this, simply because it was one of their guys and perhaps they should have done more about it. It can't be easy and the pressure is causing them to use anything they can to diffuse it a bit. Yesterday, they began suggesting that this was orchestrated by the Democrats, who may have known about this and leaked it to the media. It's called an October Surprise.

Well, I suppose that could be the case but the fact remains that it is an explosive issue, the timing of which seems more than a coincidence because the actual "pedoFOLEYa" goes back some months and even years.

If I was a political strategist and had something like this on my opponent, you can bet I'd wait till the absolute worst possible moment and then say. "um...here's something". Damn right. That's what happens in politics, business, war, sports, anything where someone is hell-bent on vanquishing an opponent. It's called an Ambush and it's the law of the jungle. It's even more effective if your opponent has basically set the trap for themselves and in this case, an irrefutable fact is that Foley did what Foley did and his abrupt resignation was every bit as damning as a confession. (I should point out that he has not been convicted of anything but a confession, like a resignation, is often a way to escape the pain of torture, guilty or not.)

But if we're going to point fingers at the Democrats for orchestrating this timely release of information, which is still in the realm of wild speculation, you could also make the case that Karl Rove was behind this. Okay, okay, hear me out.

Rove is known for his ruthless, shoot the wounded, eat the young, brand of politics and will stop at nothing to protect his investment. The administration also knows the stakes if they lose control of Congress. Were that to happen, Bush would likely spend the remainder of his term on the political water board, or worse. Rove, himself, is attributed with having suggested an October surprise and something like this, as risky and potentially self-destructive as it may seem, had one very clear result. Nobody is even talking about the Bob Woodward book. It's not even in the newscycle at all. You can bet that were it not for the Foley thing (or that sad event in Amish country), Woodward's revelations would be the lead story. It's also probably no coincidence that Condi Rice suddenly decided to spend some time in the Middle East, out of the spotlight.

I'm sure you're thinking this is crazy. Of course it's crazy. But put yourself in Rove's position for a minute (and consider his way of thinking). It is entirely possible that the Bush administration could effectively come to an end on November 7th. They know this. What lengths would they go to to prevent that, even risking a back-fire if the Republicans in Congress can't weather this? Do you think they care about the loyalty of Hastert and company? Sure, when it's useful. Do you think they would sacrifice nearly anyone to save their own skin? Without a doubt. This is not a game to them.

But how would this little diversion help the adminstration? Well, the Republicans could weather this and even rally their base. It is, indeed, a tremendously risky business but they may also be seeing no good alternatives.

So, it is entirely possible that the Democrats took advantage of something they knew, or perhaps a nosey investigative reporter just happend to stumble on it, or it might be part of a desperate measure, by desperate people, to simply change the subject. We may never know.

By the way, a comment about comments

Blogging is a wonderful advancement in technology and the ability to comment makes it all the more sporting in nature. A blog without comment capability is a bit like saying you're unsure of your own opinion and any challenge to it is a personal affront. It's also a little arrogant. So comment away but take my advice. Learn how to spell, be civil, and be aware that everything you say is a reflection on who you are, or what you've become. I do appreciate being read and tasting the savory venom of disagreement, although some of you commenters really ought to get a room.